序列预测LSTM神经网络落后

我正在尝试实现一个猜谜游戏，其中用户猜出coinflip，而神经网络则试图预测他的猜想（当然没有事后看来）。该游戏应该是实时的，可以适应用户。我使用了突触js，因为它看起来很牢固。

但是我似乎无法摆脱绊脚石：神经网络的猜测一直在落后。就像，如果用户按下

heads heads tail heads heads tail heads heads tail

它确实识别出模式，但是落后于两个动作，例如

tail heads heads tail heads heads tail heads heads

我尝试了无数策略：

• 当用户与用户一起单击头部或尾部时训练网络
• 拥有用户条目的日志并清除网络内存，并对所有条目进行重新训练，直到猜测为止
• 通过多种方式将训练与激活相结合和匹配
• 尝试移动到感知器，使其一次通过一堆动作（工作效果比LSTM差）
• 一堆我忘了的东西

建筑：

• 2个输入，无论用户在上一回合中单击了头还是尾
• 2个输出，预测用户下一步将单击什么（将在下一回合中输入）

我在隐藏层和各种训练时期尝试了10-30个神经元，但我不断遇到同样的问题！

我将发布与此相关的便笺代码。

我究竟做错了什么？还是我的期望根本无法预测用户的实时猜测？有替代算法吗？

class type _nnet = object
    method activate : float array -> float array
    method propagate : float -> float array -> unit
    method clone : unit -> _nnet Js.t
    method clear : unit -> unit
end [@bs]

type nnet = _nnet Js.t

external ltsm : int -> int -> int -> nnet = "synaptic.Architect.LSTM" [@@bs.new]
external ltsm_2 : int -> int -> int -> int -> nnet = "synaptic.Architect.LSTM" [@@bs.new]
external ltsm_3 : int -> int -> int -> int -> int -> nnet = "synaptic.Architect.LSTM" [@@bs.new]
external perceptron : int -> int -> int -> nnet = "synaptic.Architect.Perceptron" [@@bs.new]

type id
type dom
  (** Abstract type for id object *)

external dom : dom = "document" [@@bs.val]

external get_by_id : dom -> string -> id =
  "getElementById" [@@bs.send]

external set_text : id -> string -> unit =
  "innerHTML" [@@bs.set]

(*THE CODE*)

let current_net = ltsm 2 16 2
let training_momentum = 0.1
let training_epochs = 20
let training_memory = 16

let rec train_sequence_rec n the_array =
    if n > 0 then (
        current_net##propagate training_momentum the_array;
        train_sequence_rec (n - 1) the_array
    )

let print_arr prefix the_arr =
    print_endline (prefix ^ " " ^
        (Pervasives.string_of_float (Array.get the_arr 0)) ^ " " ^
        (Pervasives.string_of_float (Array.get the_arr 1)))

let blank_arr =
    fun () ->
    let res = Array.make_float 2 in
    Array.fill res 0 2 0.0;
    res

let derive_guess_from_array the_arr =
    Array.get the_arr 0 < Array.get the_arr 1

let set_array_inp the_value the_arr =
    if the_value then
        Array.set the_arr 1 1.0
    else
        Array.set the_arr 0 1.0

let output_array the_value =
    let farr = blank_arr () in
    set_array_inp the_value farr;
    farr

let by_id the_id = get_by_id (dom) the_id

let update_prediction_in_ui the_value =
    let elem = by_id "status-text" in
    if not the_value then
        set_text elem "Predicted Heads"
    else
        set_text elem "Predicted Tails"

let inc_ref the_ref = the_ref := !the_ref + 1

let total_guesses_count = ref 0
let steve_won_count = ref 0

let sequence = Array.make training_memory false
let seq_ptr = ref 0
let seq_count = ref 0

let push_seq the_value =
    Array.set sequence (!seq_ptr mod training_memory) the_value;
    inc_ref seq_ptr;
    if !seq_count < training_memory then
        inc_ref seq_count

let seq_start_offset () =
    (!seq_ptr - !seq_count) mod training_memory

let traverse_seq the_fun =
    let incr = ref 0 in
    let begin_at = seq_start_offset () in
    let next_i () = (begin_at + !incr) mod training_memory in
    let rec loop () =
        if !incr < !seq_count then (
            let cval = Array.get sequence (next_i ()) in
            the_fun cval;
            inc_ref incr;
            loop ()
        ) in
    loop ()

let first_in_sequence () =
    Array.get sequence (seq_start_offset ())

let last_in_sequence_n n =
    let curr = ((!seq_ptr - n) mod training_memory) - 1 in
    if curr >= 0 then
        Array.get sequence curr
    else
        false

let last_in_sequence () = last_in_sequence_n 0

let perceptron_input last_n_fields =
    let tot_fields = (3 * last_n_fields) in
    let out_arr = Array.make_float tot_fields in
    Array.fill out_arr 0 tot_fields 0.0;
    let rec loop count =
        if count < last_n_fields then (
            if count >= !seq_count then (
                Array.set out_arr (3 * count) 1.0;
            ) else (
                let curr = last_in_sequence_n count in
                let the_slot = if curr then 1 else 0 in
                Array.set out_arr (3 * count + 1 + the_slot) 1.0
            );
            loop (count + 1)
        ) in
    loop 0;
    out_arr

let steve_won () = inc_ref steve_won_count

let propogate_n_times the_output =
    let rec loop cnt =
        if cnt < training_epochs then (
            current_net##propagate training_momentum the_output;
            loop (cnt + 1)
        ) in
    loop 0

let print_prediction prev exp pred =
    print_endline ("Current training, previous: " ^ (Pervasives.string_of_bool prev) ^
        ", expected: " ^ (Pervasives.string_of_bool exp)
        ^ ", predicted: " ^ (Pervasives.string_of_bool pred))

let train_from_sequence () =
    current_net##clear ();
    let previous = ref (first_in_sequence ()) in
    let count = ref 0 in
    print_endline "NEW TRAINING BATCH";
    traverse_seq (fun i ->
        let inp_arr = output_array !previous in
        let out_arr = output_array i in
        let act_res = current_net##activate inp_arr in
        print_prediction !previous i (derive_guess_from_array act_res);
        propogate_n_times out_arr;
        previous := i;
        inc_ref count
    )

let update_counts_in_ui () =
    let tot = by_id "total-count" in
    let won = by_id "steve-won-count" in
    set_text tot (Pervasives.string_of_int !total_guesses_count);
    set_text won (Pervasives.string_of_int !steve_won_count)

let train_sequence (the_value : bool) =
    train_from_sequence ();
    let last_guess = (last_in_sequence ()) in
    let before_train = current_net##activate (output_array last_guess) in
    let act_result = derive_guess_from_array before_train in
    (*side effects*)

    push_seq the_value;

    inc_ref total_guesses_count;
    if the_value = act_result then steve_won ();
    print_endline "CURRENT";
    print_prediction last_guess the_value act_result;
    update_prediction_in_ui act_result;
    update_counts_in_ui ()

let guess (user_guess : bool) =
    train_sequence user_guess

let () = ()